TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 3:26 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether any coalition of specified Israeli political parties will win a majority of seats in the Knesset following the upcoming legislative elections. Currently, Polymarket gives a 4.4% probability to the outcome of any coalition winning a majority. The market will resolve based on election results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit), with a final resolution date no later than June 30, 2027, if results are not definitively known earlier. Keep a close watch on the election results following the scheduled voting date of October 27, 2026, to see if either of the defined party groupings secure the necessary 61 seats.
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following groups of parties wins a combined total of 61 seats or more in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election: (a) The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu; or (b) Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages for this election. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market reflects a continuous assessment of probabilities based on all available information. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, biases in polling samples, and the market's ability to incorporate a wider range of data, including political analysis and real-time events. It's important to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion about the likely outcome of the Israeli election.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of any coalition winning a majority. The price of these shares directly reflects the market’s collective forecast. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the election’s potential outcomes. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand among traders on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether any coalition of political parties secures a majority of seats in the Knesset following the election. The outcome will be based on official election results and confirmation of coalition agreements that demonstrate a clear majority. The market will settle to 100% if a majority coalition is formed, and 0% otherwise. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements regarding the election results and coalition negotiations.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major developments in coalition negotiations, such as breakthroughs or breakdowns in talks between key political parties, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Unexpected endorsements from influential figures, significant changes in polling data, or unforeseen political scandals could also impact market prices. Furthermore, any major geopolitical events or security incidents in the region could influence voter sentiment and, consequently, the market’s assessment of the likely outcome. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.
