TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 10:50 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than some polling averages. While polls often focus on overall party support, this market specifically targets the number of seats Amcha Yisrael will secure. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, weighting, and the inclusion of undecided voters. Prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information, including expert opinions, news events, and even subtle shifts in public sentiment, potentially offering a more nuanced forecast than traditional polls alone. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion about the election outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe Amcha Yisrael will win a certain number of seats, the higher the price of shares representing that outcome will climb. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust predictions accordingly, offering a real-time assessment of the likely election results.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Israeli election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of seats ultimately won by Amcha Yisrael in the Knesset, as declared by the Central Elections Committee, will determine the settlement of this market. The resolution will be based on the official count and any subsequent recounts or legal challenges that are finalized and publicly announced. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the election results are tallied.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Oct 27, 2026. Major political endorsements, unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling data, and significant policy announcements by Amcha Yisrael or its rivals could all cause price fluctuations. Any controversies or scandals involving key candidates could also impact the market. Furthermore, geopolitical events or changes in the overall political landscape within Israel could introduce new uncertainties and drive trading activity, leading to shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.
