TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 2:04 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
In early October 2026, posts circulating on social media claimed that Iranian officials would soon release audio of voicemails allegedly left for them by U.S. President Donald Trump, including messages seeking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As of this market’s creation, no Iranian official has publicly announced any such release. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of Iran publicly releases any audio recording of Donald Trump that was not publicly available as of this market’s creation in which he expresses a wish for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened or reopened, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A release by the Government of Iran includes publication by any Iranian government official, ministry, or body (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), by Iranian state or state-affiliated media (e.g., IRIB, IRNA, Press TV, Tasnim, Fars), or through the official social media accounts of any of these. Audio released by any other party, including hacker groups, will qualify only if the Government of Iran also publicly releases or republishes it within this market’s timeframe. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying recording may be a voicemail, a voice message sent through a messaging application, or a recording of a live conversation, such as a phone call or meeting. To qualify, the released audio must include what is presented as Donald Trump’s own voice expressing a desire, request, demand, or plea for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened or reopened (e.g., to commercial shipping). Audio in which Trump only mentions the Strait of Hormuz without expressing such a wish will not qualify. Written transcripts, descriptions, or characterizations of a recording without release of the audio itself will not qualify, nor will announcements of an intent to release. The recording must not have been publicly available as of this market’s creation. Audio that was publicly available as of this market’s creation will not qualify, even if it is re-released; however, previously unreleased portions of an otherwise public recording may qualify. The released audio will qualify as long as it is presented by the Government of Iran as a genuine recording of Donald Trump, regardless of whether its authenticity is confirmed, disputed, or denied. The resolution source will be official information from the Government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
In early October 2026, posts circulating on social media claimed that Iranian officials would soon release audio of voicemails allegedly left for them by U.S. President Donald Trump, including messages seeking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As of this market’s creation, no Iranian official has publicly announced any such release. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of Iran publicly releases any audio recording of Donald Trump that was not publicly available as of this market’s creation in which he expresses a wish for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened or reopened, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A release by the Government of Iran includes publication by any Iranian government official, ministry, or body (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), by Iranian state or state-affiliated media (e.g., IRIB, IRNA, Press TV, Tasnim, Fars), or through the official social media accounts of any of these. Audio released by any other party, including hacker groups, will qualify only if the Government of Iran also publicly releases or republishes it within this market’s timeframe. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying recording may be a voicemail, a voice message sent through a messaging application, or a recording of a live conversation, such as a phone call or meeting. To qualify, the released audio must include what is presented as Donald Trump’s own voice expressing a desire, request, demand, or plea for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened or reopened (e.g., to commercial shipping). Audio in which Trump only mentions the Strait of Hormuz without expressing such a wish will not qualify. Written transcripts, descriptions, or characterizations of a recording without release of the audio itself will not qualify, nor will announcements of an intent to release. The recording must not have been publicly available as of this market’s creation. Audio that was publicly available as of this market’s creation will not qualify, even if it is re-released; however, previously unreleased portions of an otherwise public recording may qualify. The released audio will qualify as long as it is presented by the Government of Iran as a genuine recording of Donald Trump, regardless of whether its authenticity is confirmed, disputed, or denied. The resolution source will be official information from the Government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different perspective than traditional polling on the likelihood of the voicemail’s release. While polls may capture general public opinion, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. This often leads to a more accurate forecast, as traders have a financial incentive to correctly assess the probability of the event occurring. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can be significant, especially in situations with complex geopolitical factors at play, like this one. It’s a valuable comparison to consider when evaluating potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the event happening. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood of the voicemail’s release. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or other prediction markets. This dynamic pricing ensures the market stays responsive to new information and changing perceptions.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether verifiable evidence emerges demonstrating that the alleged voicemail from former President Trump regarding the Hormuz Strait has been publicly released by Iranian state media or other official sources. The outcome will be determined by whether this release has occurred prior to the resolution date. Traders should monitor news sources for updates as the resolution date approaches, as this will directly impact the final settlement of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any official statements from Iranian government officials regarding the voicemail, or hints about its potential release, would likely cause a shift in trading activity. Unexpected escalations in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran could also influence the market, potentially increasing the perceived likelihood of a retaliatory release. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation efforts might decrease those odds. Major news reports or leaks pertaining to the voicemail’s existence or content would also be key catalysts to watch.
