TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.8b
24H VOL:
$119,205,487
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,317,581,230
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,172,792,273
330,375
Markets across
32,561
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,019
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
September 30
- Polymarket
September 30 - Polymarket
39%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 15
Aug 16
Aug 17
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Aug 22
Vol.
$102.6k
·
Resolves Oct 1, 2026
$
This market tracks whether a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will be announced by a specified date. On Polymarket, the current probability that an Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement will be reached by September 30 is 45.0%, with the probability of an agreement by August 31 at 15.5%. The resolution will rely on official statements from the governments of Oman and Iran and credible reporting, and all eyes will be on developments leading up to the September 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Currently, this market reflects a strong inclination toward an agreement, with the leading outcome priced at 38.0%. This aligns closely with many analyst forecasts, which also suggest a high probability of a diplomatic breakthrough. However, prediction markets can shift rapidly based on new geopolitical developments, sometimes diverging from traditional expert opinions.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders actively set prices through buying and selling contracts, which determines the implied probability for each possible outcome. The current top outcome holds a chance of 38.0%, shaped by recent trading volume and participant sentiment. Market dynamics here respond quickly to news that could affect negotiations.
This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will see the result determined by whether an official Iran-Oman Hormuz management agreement is announced before the deadline, based on authoritative news sources and government statements.
Key signals include official statements from Iranian or Omani diplomats, published joint communiqués, and reports of high-level meetings. Any indication of breakthrough discussions or, conversely, breakdown in talks could shift this market sharply. Media coverage of diplomatic activity and regional power reactions may also influence trader sentiment leading up to Oct 1, 2026.