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Iran full airspace closure by...?
polymarket

Will Iran close its airspace by August 31, 2026?

Jun 25, 2026, 7:23 PM EST - Jan 25, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$9,914,365
Volume 24h:
$146,557
14%
Liquidity:
$38,079
52%
Open interest:
$393,891N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 26, 2027

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

23%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 23¢ buys you 435 shares | Odds: 23% Total Payout: $435 | Net Profit: $335 Multiplier: 4.35x | ROI: 335% High Projected APY: 8,972% 118 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
23%
Yes 23¢No 78¢
1¢
$11,214
$359,738
0.11%
4%
N/A
3mo 4w
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$8,815
$36,721
121%
351%
N/A
1mo 2d
active
polymarket

September 30

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99¢
0.3¢
$18,050
$1,063,300
3%
18%
N/A
3mo 4w
active
polymarket

July 15

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,765,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,265,107
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
3%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,543,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 15

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$770,665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 24

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$503,482
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 27

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$252,155
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 21

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$239,078
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.9¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115,125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Iran initiating a general closure of its airspace, not due to weather, before a specified date. Currently, Polymarket gives a 24.5% probability to Iran fully closing its airspace by December 31st, while the probability of closure by October 31, 2026 is 14%. Resolution will be based on official information from Iranian aviation authorities and credible reporting. Keep a close watch on developments surrounding the Iranian military exercises scheduled for late December 2026, as any significant changes to flight permissions or airspace access around that time could be a key indicator.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Iran airspace closure market displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $50,403, and the total volume traded to date is $9,914,365. Traders on Polymarket are expressing a 22.5% chance that a full closure of Iranian airspace will occur by the resolution date. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how sentiment is shifting over time, allowing you to monitor the market’s activity and potential price movements.

Comparing prediction market odds to those offered by sportsbooks is challenging as they represent different types of forecasting. Sportsbooks primarily focus on the probability of discrete events with established rules, while this market reflects a broader assessment of geopolitical risk and potential airspace closures. Traditional polls and analyst expectations currently suggest a wide range of possibilities regarding the stability of Iranian airspace, making a direct comparison difficult. This market offers a unique perspective based on the collective wisdom of traders actively assessing the situation.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the likelihood of a full Iranian airspace closure. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the current price indicates the implied probability of the event occurring. Higher demand for shares increases the price, signaling greater confidence in the outcome.

This market resolves around Jan 26, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Iranian authorities implement a full closure of the country’s airspace, meaning a complete prohibition of all civilian flights within and over Iranian territory. The determination will be based on official announcements and verifiable evidence from reputable news sources and aviation authorities. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to understand the evolving situation.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions between Iran and other nations, particularly the United States or Israel, would likely drive up the price of shares. Any official statements from Iranian government officials regarding airspace security or potential restrictions would also be a key catalyst. Additionally, major incidents involving commercial airlines operating in the region, or significant changes in international aviation regulations, could shift trader sentiment and impact the volume of this market. Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding potential price movements.