TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Who will win the Indiana Secretary of State?
Beau Bayh (D)
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 11, 2026
Latest in Politics
Time left: 18h:45m:55s
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election?
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Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election. The markets consider outcomes based on the winning party (Democratic or Republican) and, on Polymarket, specific candidates. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting, ultimately defaulting to official election results.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi presents a combined outcome (either major party wins) while Polymarket offers granular markets for each party, individual candidates, and an 'Other' option.Hero tip: If you believe a third-party candidate has a non-negligible chance of winning, focus on Polymarket's 'Other' market. Otherwise, understand Kalshi's market represents the combined probability of either major party winning.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket offers multiple markets, including specific candidates and an 'Other' option. Resolution is based on the party of the winning candidate, with a fallback to 'Other' if results are unclear by July 31, 2027. "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election..."
- Kalshi: Kalshi resolves to 'Yes' if either a Democratic or Republican candidate wins. "If a representative of the Democratic party party is elected...then the market resolves to Yes. If a representative of the Republican party party is elected...then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if either a Democratic or Republican party representative is elected Secretary of State of Indiana in the 2026 election. Resolution may be accelerated after media organizations reach consensus on the projected winner.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences at a single point in time, while this market reflects what people are willing to *stake* on an outcome. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, especially as an election approaches, as traders incorporate new information and adjust their positions. However, it's important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have limitations and should be considered alongside other sources of information when evaluating the Indiana Secretary of State race.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading fees, and market-making activity can all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, each platform has its own liquidity and risk appetite, which can influence how quickly prices react to new information. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election? at 56.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Indiana Secretary of State winner? at 55.0%. These differences highlight the importance of looking at multiple sources to get a comprehensive view of the market.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Indiana Secretary of State election, as declared by official election results, will determine the outcome. The 24-hour trading volume is currently $9,534, indicating active interest in this event. Traders are continuously updating their predictions based on the latest developments in the race, making this a dynamic and informative market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, debate performances, campaign finance reports, and any unexpected developments in the candidates' backgrounds could all shift the odds. Polling data releases will also be closely watched, although, as previously mentioned, prediction markets often incorporate information beyond polls. Any significant news coverage or changes in the political landscape surrounding the Indiana Secretary of State race could lead to increased trading volume and price movements in this market.