TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Huon Valley Mayoral Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Huon Valley Mayoral?

Volume:
$48,050

Abby McKibben

 - Kalshi

Abby McKibben - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 12:52 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Abby McKibben

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,383
N/A
N/A
$5,091
1mo 1w 5d
Yes
polymarket

Candidate A

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,078
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Sally Doyle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,826
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paul Gibson

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,045
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Paul Gibson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$762
N/A
N/A
$231
1mo 1w 5d
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,304
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Toby Thorpe

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,096
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Marshall Callaghan

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Mark Jessop

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,192
N/A
N/A
$203
1mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Marshall Callaghan

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
1mo 1w 5d
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate I

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate J

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate K

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate L

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate M

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate N

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate O

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate P

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate Q

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 35

Description

This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Huon Valley mayoral election in Tasmania, Australia. The markets aim to predict which candidate will secure the position of mayor following the election, relying on official results from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The candidate scope differs significantly between platforms, and Polymarket includes an 'Other' option not present on Kalshi. Resolution timing also differs.Hero tip: Prioritize trading markets on candidates covered by both platforms. Be mindful of the 'Other' candidate risk on Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the official results from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Includes markets for a large number of candidates and an 'Other' option. If the result is unknown by March 31, 2027, it resolves to 'Other'.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if one of a limited set of candidates (Abby McKibben, Mark Jessop, Paul Gibson) wins the election.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Huon Valley Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the named candidate wins the 2026 Huon Valley mayoral election. All markets are eligible for accelerated resolution upon a consensus of media calls confirming the election outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, which can be a more accurate signal of belief. Polling data can be influenced by biases or inaccurate sampling, whereas the financial incentive in a prediction market encourages participants to be as accurate as possible. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially in situations where there's strong sentiment or uncertainty surrounding the election. This market provides a dynamic view, constantly updating as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected controversies involving candidates could all shift trader sentiment. Changes in polling data, while not always directly correlated, can also influence prices. Furthermore, any events that affect voter turnout, such as changes to voting regulations or major local issues gaining prominence, could play a role. Unexpected economic news or national political trends could also indirectly affect the race and, consequently, this market.