TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks projected user engagement with the Hulu app by measuring download numbers for a specific month compared to the same month in the previous year. The outcome depends on whether these downloads exceed certain thresholds, reflecting growth or decline relative to historical data.
All markets in this event are resolved based on the Carbon Arc Hulu App Downloads index for September 2026, reported for September 2026. Each market has a specific threshold; if the reported index value exceeds the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. The determination is made using the first value reported by Carbon Arc, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after settlement will not affect the outcome. The index measures year-over-year performance, where a value of 100 indicates equal downloads compared to the same month last year, values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with Hulu, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced outlook. While analysts may issue reports based on historical trends and projections, traders in this market incorporate real-time data, news, and sentiment — which can lead to notable differences in expected download estimates versus consensus forecasts.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on official download statistics from reliable sources, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution for all participants.
Several signals could shift this market before Oct 15, 2026. Major product announcements, marketing campaigns, or changes in consumer behavior due to competing services might boost or suppress download estimates. Economic factors like disposable income trends or seasonal usage patterns could also influence outcomes. Media coverage highlighting Hulu’s features or controversies may sway trader sentiment. Additionally, technical issues such as app store performance or platform updates might temporarily affect download numbers. As Oct 15, 2026 approaches, real-time data releases and analyst updates will likely cause volatility, especially if they present surprises relative to current market expectations.