TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks Donald Trump's activity on his Truth Social platform during October 2026, focusing specifically on how many posts he chooses to delete from his own account. The outcome depends on whether he reaches certain thresholds of deletions throughout that month.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the total number of Truth Social posts deleted by Donald Trump from his personal account during the calendar month of October 2026. qualifying content includes original Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths created within that specific month. Each market has a different threshold requirement, ranging from 5 to 25 deletions, with higher thresholds creating more stringent conditions for resolution to 'Yes'. The evaluation will consider only posts originating from Trump's own account during the specified timeframe, excluding any posts deleted prior to or after October 2026 or those not created by him directly.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds represent a different kind of information than polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences at a single point in time, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This often leads to divergences, as market prices incorporate a wider range of factors, including perceived uncertainty and the incentives of traders. While polls may indicate public sentiment, the prices in this market offer a view of considered probabilities, potentially identifying outcomes that are more or less likely than polls suggest. It's a way to see what people believe, not just what they say.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts corresponding to different outcome ranges for the number of deleted Truths. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, causing the prices to fluctuate. The market aggregates this collective intelligence, providing a dynamic forecast of the likely outcome. Higher volume at a particular price suggests greater confidence in that outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the number of Truth Social posts deleted by Donald Trump during the month of October 2026 will be counted. The resolution will be based on a publicly available record of deleted posts, ensuring transparency and objectivity. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the final number of deletions, based on the contract they held at resolution. This provides a clear and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any major changes to Truth Social's policies regarding content moderation or account restrictions could shift expectations. Legal challenges or investigations involving Donald Trump might also impact his activity on the platform. Furthermore, shifts in the political landscape or public discourse surrounding Trump could lead traders to reassess the likelihood of him deleting posts. Unexpected events, such as a major social media controversy or a significant news story, could also cause volatility in this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding price movements.
