TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of times Donald Trump travels to Trump National Golf Club Bedminster during October 2026. Each distinct arrival and departure counts as a separate visit, and any ongoing stay at the start or end of the month is included in the total count.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes for markets labeled 0 through 4 if Donald Trump makes exactly that many trips to Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in October 2026. A trip is defined as a period beginning when Trump arrives at the property and ending when he leaves. If Trump remains at the property at the start of October, this counts as one trip. If he is still present at the end of October, this also counts as a trip. Each separate arrival and departure during the month counts individually toward the total number of trips. The resolution depends solely on whether the actual number of trips matches exactly the number specified in the market outcome label.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare this market to polling averages, as polls this far in advance of October 2026 are unlikely to exist. However, as the event draws nearer, it will be interesting to see how the predictions made in this market align with any polling data regarding Donald Trump’s travel schedule and political activity. Generally, prediction markets can offer a different perspective than polls, as they reflect what people are willing to put their money on, rather than simply what they state as their opinion. This market offers a real-time assessment of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices for contracts representing each possible number of visits. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on their beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. Higher prices indicate a greater perceived chance of that number of visits happening, while lower prices suggest a lower probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient information aggregation.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of times Donald Trump physically visits Trump Bedminster during the month of October 2026. Visits will be determined by publicly available records of his travel, such as official schedules, news reports, and photographic evidence. The final outcome will be the verified count of these visits, establishing the result of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major announcements regarding Donald Trump’s political activities, campaign plans, or health could all shift predictions. Changes in the political landscape, such as significant election results or shifts in public opinion, could also play a role. Unexpected events, like major news stories or geopolitical developments, might alter his travel schedule. Furthermore, any official statements regarding planned visits to Trump Bedminster, or even hints about his travel preferences, could cause the market to react and adjust its pricing.
