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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?

Volume:
$124,217

35-39

 - Polymarket

35-39 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 15, 11:29 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

35-39

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

20-24

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,789
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<20

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25-29

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,933
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40+

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,922
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30-34

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,034
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, there aren’t readily available sportsbook odds directly comparable to this market’s specific question about ship transit counts through the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts following geopolitical events and shipping trends generally anticipate moderate shipping activity, given current regional stability. This market allows for a more granular prediction than simple “over/under” bets, as it asks for a specific range of ship transits. The collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket provides a unique perspective, potentially differing from expert forecasts based on traditional analysis.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its shares will climb. This creates a dynamic pricing system that aggregates the insights of many participants, offering a real-time assessment of the potential number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of ships that transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7 and September 13 will be determined by analyzing publicly available data from maritime tracking services and official port authorities. The outcome will reflect the verified count of vessels passing through this crucial shipping lane during the specified timeframe, providing a clear and objective resolution for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 13, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as increased tensions in the region or disruptions to oil production, could lead to altered shipping patterns and affect the number of transiting vessels. Weather conditions, particularly severe storms, could also cause delays or reroutings. Major incidents involving ships in the area, like accidents or piracy attempts, would likely impact trading activity. Any news related to shipping lane security or changes in trade flows could also move this market as traders adjust their predictions.