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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 22?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 22?

Volume:
$85,339

100+

 - Polymarket

100+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jun 28, 7:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

100+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$49,490
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

75-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25-49

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,543
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-74

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,873
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 22, 2026, through June 28, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 22, 2026, through June 28, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz shipping volume market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the week of June 22. The interface displays the current probability estimate, historical price movements, and trading volume metrics including a 24-hour snapshot. Traders use this data to monitor how market participants are pricing the likelihood of ship transits through one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. The dashboard aggregates all buy and sell orders on the platform, reflecting the collective forecast of the prediction market community.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks operate under different regulatory frameworks and serve distinct audiences. Sportsbooks typically focus on sports outcomes and use odds to balance liability, whereas prediction markets like this one allow traders to directly buy and sell shares reflecting their beliefs about real-world events. Prediction market prices are often viewed as more efficient forecasts because they aggregate dispersed information from many participants with financial incentives to be accurate. For geopolitical and logistics events such as maritime transit volumes, prediction markets can capture nuanced, real-time assessments that traditional betting venues may not offer.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares that represent yes or no outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market reflects a high probability estimate, with traders pricing the likelihood of 100 or more ships transiting the strait during the specified week. Each share trades between 0 and 1 dollar, and the price at any moment represents the aggregated belief of all active traders. As new information emerges—such as geopolitical developments, port activity reports, or shipping schedules—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down in real time.

This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once the week of June 22 concludes and shipping data becomes verifiable. The outcome is determined by counting the number of ships that transited the Strait of Hormuz during that specific week, confirmed against credible public sources including maritime tracking databases and official port records. The binary structure means the market will settle to either yes or no based on whether the actual transit count meets or exceeds the threshold specified in the market terms.

Several factors could shift trader sentiment and move prices in this market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sanctions announcements, or military incidents could disrupt normal shipping patterns. Port congestion reports, seasonal demand fluctuations, and oil price movements may also influence transit volumes. Real-time shipping data releases, vessel tracking updates, and official statements from maritime authorities can trigger rapid repricing. Additionally, broader economic indicators affecting global trade and energy markets could influence how many ships operators route through the strait versus alternative passages during the week in question.