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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?

Volume:
$97,881

75-99

 - Polymarket

75-99 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 21, 3:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

75-99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,590
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25-49

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-74

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,283
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz shipping volume market displays real-time odds and historical price movements for the week of June 15. Traders use this interface to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of how many vessels will transit this critical chokepoint during that seven-day window. The platform aggregates all trading activity to reflect the collective forecast, with volume of $7,009 in the last 24 hours showing current market interest. Historical charts help participants identify trends and compare sentiment shifts as new information emerges.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks operate on fundamentally different models. Sportsbooks set fixed odds and manage risk through layoff betting, while this market lets traders themselves determine prices through supply and demand. Unlike sportsbooks, prediction markets reward accuracy over time rather than offering one-off bets. The odds here reflect a decentralized consensus among participants with real money at stake, often converging toward verifiable outcomes more efficiently than traditional bookmakers. Both venues price uncertainty, but prediction markets typically offer tighter spreads on geopolitical and logistical events like maritime transit volumes.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker (AMM) system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on one unit of the final count, and the price of each outcome reflects the probability traders assign to it. As new information surfaces—shipping reports, geopolitical tensions, or seasonal patterns—participants adjust their positions, moving prices in real time. The market's depth and liquidity determine how quickly large trades shift the odds, with more active participation typically narrowing bid-ask spreads.

This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, once the week of June 15 concludes and shipping data becomes available. The outcome is confirmed by verified counts from credible public sources tracking maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Official vessel transit records, maritime authority reports, and industry databases provide the factual basis for settlement. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome range receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution window allows time for data aggregation and verification before final payouts are processed.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sanctions announcements, or military incidents could significantly alter shipping patterns and trader expectations. Oil price swings often correlate with tanker traffic through the strait, so energy market moves may shift this market's odds. Seasonal weather patterns, port congestion reports, and shipping company guidance on route changes all influence the forecast. Economic data affecting global trade volumes and shipping demand could also reshape predictions. Real-time vessel tracking updates and maritime authority statements in the days leading up to June 15 will likely trigger rapid repricing as participants refine their estimates.