TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?

Volume:
$119,435

25-49

 - Polymarket

25-49 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 5, 1:38 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25-49

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
4.6¢
N/A
$49,889
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

75-99

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,865
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<25

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,995
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-74

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,377
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for the Strait of Hormuz shipping market, alongside 24-hour volume of $48,562. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different ship transit totals for the week of July 27, offering a live view of market sentiment and liquidity through $119,435 in total volume.

This market resolves around Aug 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of ships that transit the strait during the specified week will be compared against the market’s defined thresholds, and the result will be settled automatically based on that official determination.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 2, 2026: any escalation or de-escalation of regional tensions, new sanctions or naval patrols affecting passage, severe weather forecasts in the Persian Gulf, or unexpected infrastructure incidents like closures or accidents. Each of these could prompt rapid reassessments by traders, moving the odds toward either a higher or lower expected transit count depending on perceived impact.