TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?

Volume:
$553,940

<50

 - Polymarket

<50 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 4, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 4:28 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$442,956
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

50-74

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
1.3¢
N/A
$59,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

75-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-124

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,716
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

125+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,209
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether fewer than 50 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20 and July 26 on Polymarket, with the leading outcome currently at 98.7% and the second outcome at 0.4%. The resolution source is IMF Portwatch. Watch for the resolution on July 26, 2026, when the final transit data for the specified week will be published.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz shipping volume market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the week of July 20. This market lets traders forecast the number of vessels transiting one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. The dashboard displays current odds, historical price movements, and 24-hour volume of $203,569, giving participants visibility into how the crowd is pricing this geopolitical and logistics event. Traders use these signals to position around supply-chain disruptions, energy flows, and regional stability.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks operate on fundamentally different models. Sportsbooks set fixed odds and manage risk through limits and juice; prediction markets like this one aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. In this market, odds reflect real-time consensus on shipping volumes rather than a bookmaker's margin. Prediction markets often outperform traditional forecasts because traders have direct financial incentive to be accurate. For maritime and geopolitical events, prediction market prices can capture breaking news and expert positioning faster than static sportsbook lines.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time probabilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—representing a specific range of ship transits—has its own contract, and the price of each reflects the crowd's confidence. As traders buy or sell, the price adjusts continuously. This mechanism ensures transparent, friction-free pricing and allows participants to enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes, making it ideal for tracking shifting sentiment around Strait of Hormuz traffic.

This market resolves around Jul 26, 2026, after the week of July 20 concludes. The outcome is determined by the actual number of ships that transit the Strait of Hormuz during that period, verified against credible public sources. Once the event window closes and data is confirmed, this market settles to the outcome bucket that matches the final count. Traders should monitor shipping reports and maritime tracking services in the days leading up to and following the resolution date to assess their positions.

Several catalysts could shift odds significantly. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—sanctions, military activity, or diplomatic incidents—often spike transit volumes or create bottlenecks. Oil price shocks and energy demand changes influence shipping patterns. Weather events, port congestion, or accidents can disrupt flow. Shipping industry reports and vessel-tracking data released during the week will provide real-time signals. Major news from Iran, the UAE, or global energy markets may also reprrice expectations. Traders should watch maritime news feeds and geopolitical developments closely as the event week approaches.