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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13?

Volume:
$65,472

<100

 - Polymarket

<100 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 26, 2026

Closed: Jul 26, 2:41 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<100

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$46,215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

100-124

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,164
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

150-174

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

175+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,164
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

125-149

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,739
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 13, 2026, through July 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 13, 2026, through July 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz shipping volume market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the number of ships transiting this critical waterway during the week of July 13. The dashboard displays current market pricing, historical price movements, and 24-hour volume of $2,268 to help traders monitor sentiment around maritime traffic through one of the world's most strategically important chokepoints. This market reflects collective predictions about weekly vessel counts, incorporating geopolitical developments, seasonal patterns, and supply-chain disruptions that influence global shipping flows.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks operate on fundamentally different principles. Sportsbooks set fixed odds and act as bookmakers, managing risk by adjusting lines based on bet flow. This market, by contrast, uses dynamic peer-to-peer pricing where traders themselves determine odds through continuous buying and selling. Prediction markets often reflect real-time information more efficiently because participants have direct financial incentives to price in breaking news, expert analysis, and emerging data. For shipping events like this one, prediction market odds tend to incorporate specialized maritime intelligence faster than traditional betting venues.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into continuous probability quotes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders purchase shares representing different outcomes—specific ship-count ranges for the week of July 13—and the price of each share reflects the collective belief in that outcome's likelihood. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, moving prices in real time. The market's price discovery mechanism ensures that odds remain competitive and responsive to changing conditions throughout the trading period.

This market resolves around Jul 19, 2026, once the week of July 13 concludes and shipping data becomes verifiable. The outcome is determined by the actual number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz during that specific week, confirmed against credible public sources including maritime tracking services and official port records. Traders should monitor shipping reports and geopolitical developments leading up to resolution, as sanctions, accidents, or regional tensions can significantly alter transit volumes. The final count will be cross-referenced with established maritime intelligence to ensure accuracy.

Several catalysts could shift odds substantially before resolution. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, new sanctions regimes, or military incidents directly affect vessel routing and transit decisions. Oil price swings influence shipping demand and tanker traffic through the strait. Weather disruptions, port congestion, or accidents can temporarily reduce throughput. Supply-chain announcements from major trading partners and OPEC production decisions also ripple through maritime logistics. Traders should track regional news, shipping indices, and energy markets closely, as these factors compound to determine weekly transit volumes. Early signals from maritime tracking platforms often precede official data releases.