TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
polymarket

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?

Volume:
$32,903

25-49

 - Polymarket

25-49 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 2, 2:32 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25-49

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.9¢
N/A
$8,789
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<25

0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-74

0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,749
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

75-99

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,023
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,666
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz shipping market on Polymarket tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $11,685. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different ship transit counts for the week of August 24. This single-venue view updates continuously, reflecting market sentiment and trading activity without aggregating data from any other source.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers agree on odds for each possible outcome. The current leading outcome reflects collective trader assessment of likely ship transits, influenced by recent data on regional tensions, oil demand, and naval activity. Volume of $32,893 indicates liquidity and interest in this market’s outcome.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 30, 2026. Escalations in regional conflict, new sanctions, or unexpected naval blockades may increase perceived risk and move odds toward lower-transit outcomes. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or increased oil demand could push expectations higher. Traders will watch shipping data releases, geopolitical news wires, and statements from regional powers for clues about likely transit volumes.