TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?

Volume:
$20,291

170-189

 - Polymarket

170-189 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 4:20 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

170-189

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,794
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<170

View
0%
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,935
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

190-209

View
0%
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,027
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

230+

View
0%
8%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

210-229

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,763
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bab el-Mandeb shipping market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the number of ships transiting the strait during the week of September 14th. You can view the implied probabilities, price history, and 24-hour trading volume directly on the page. Currently, the total volume for this market is $20,291 and the 24-hour volume is $2,662. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to global shipping activity through this crucial waterway.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of each share reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning increased buying pressure on a particular outcome will raise its price, and vice versa. This creates a real-time indication of expectations regarding shipping volume.

This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of ships that transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the specified week will be used to determine the winning outcome. The data will be sourced from established maritime tracking services and publicly available shipping data. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for this market, based on verifiable real-world events.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Geopolitical events impacting shipping routes, such as increased naval activity or security concerns in the Red Sea, could disrupt traffic and move the market. Major weather events, like severe storms, could also cause delays and alter shipping schedules. Additionally, significant changes in global trade patterns or port congestion could affect the number of vessels passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Any news related to these factors has the potential to shift trader sentiment and impact the price of shares in this market.