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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
polymarket

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?

Volume:
$20,280

180-199

 - Polymarket

180-199 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 2, 1:46 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

180-199

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,024
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

200-219

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,888
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

220+

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,870
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

160-179

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<160

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$589
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the Bab el-Mandeb shipping market, along with 24-hour volume of $1,321. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different ship transit ranges during the specified week. The interface updates continuously to reflect the latest betting activity and market sentiment, giving users a clear view of where the market stands at any moment.

Unlike sportsbook odds, which often include a house edge and broader categorizations, prediction market odds for this market reflect aggregated trader sentiment and can shift rapidly with new data. Sportsbooks may offer simpler yes/no propositions or wider bins, but they generally lag behind the granular, continuous pricing available on Polymarket. This allows participants to capture more precise movements in expectation as the event date approaches.

This market resolves around Aug 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Analysts will look at official maritime logs, news wire reports, and shipping authority data to determine the final ship count for the week in question. The result is based purely on observable, publicly recorded activity, ensuring an objective resolution.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 30, 2026: geopolitical developments in the Red Sea region, unexpected weather events that slow or reroute traffic, and sudden changes in global shipping demand. Reports from maritime insurance firms, freight rate spikes, or naval fleet movements may also influence trader sentiment. Any credible news affecting the flow of commercial vessels through the strait can cause rapid price adjustments on Polymarket as participants reassess probabilities.