TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of official actions taken by a political figure during a specific week. The outcome depends solely on publicly listed items during that period, regardless of their legal impact.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the number of presidential actions published on the "Presidential Actions" tab at whitehouse.gov by 10:00 AM ET on Oct 4, 2026, covering the week from Sep 27 to Oct 3, 2026. Actions include proclamations, executive orders, nominations, appointments, and memoranda. Any item listed on the page counts toward the total, irrespective of legal effect. Publication dates determine resolution; actions emailed but not uploaded, backdated entries, or items appearing in other sections like "Briefings & Statements" do not count. The markets differ only in the threshold number of actions required for a "Yes" outcome, ranging from 1 to 15.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds tend to be more strongly correlated with event outcomes than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *put their money on*. This difference can be significant, as prediction markets incentivize honest forecasting and aggregate diverse information. It’s important to note that polls and prediction markets measure different things – intention versus belief – and can therefore provide complementary insights. However, for this specific event, it’s crucial to look at expert analysis alongside both polls and this market to get a well-rounded view.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of official presidential actions taken by Donald Trump between September 27th and October 3rd is verifiable from credible public reporting. An official presidential action includes things like executive orders, memoranda, proclamations, and any other formal directive issued by the former president. The resolution will be based on a count of these actions as documented by reliable news sources and official government records. The final outcome will be determined by this verified count.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any unexpected public statements or appearances by Donald Trump could shift expectations. Major political developments, such as significant legal rulings or legislative actions, could also prompt traders to reassess the likelihood of presidential actions. Media coverage and expert analysis will play a role, as will any indications of Trump’s future plans or activities. The closer we get to Oct 4, 2026, the more sensitive the market will become to these types of signals. Unexpected events or announcements during the week itself will have the most direct impact.
