TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
At least 2
- Kalshi
At least 2 - Kalshi
1W
News
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Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 8, 2026
Time left: 05d:12h:02m
Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Nov 1, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks the number of official presidential actions taken by Donald Trump during a specific week in 2026. The resolution depends solely on the actions published on an official government website by a set deadline, regardless of their legal impact.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the count of presidential actions published on the "Presidential Actions" tab at whitehouse.gov by 10:00 AM ET on November 8, 2026, covering the period from November 1 to November 7, 2026. Each market has a different threshold (ranging from 2 to 12 actions) that must be met or exceeded for the market to resolve to "Yes". Actions include proclamations, executive orders, nominations, appointments, and memoranda. The resolution depends strictly on publication dates displayed on the specified page; actions not listed there by the deadline, even if signed earlier or communicated otherwise, do not count. Examples clarify that only actions officially published within the timeframe count, while those appearing in other sections or not uploaded by the deadline do not contribute to the total.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, particularly in situations where respondents may be hesitant to express unpopular opinions or where strategic considerations influence betting behavior. While polls might show a general leaning, this market provides a quantifiable estimate of the likelihood of different outcomes, based on actual financial commitments. It’s important to remember that both offer distinct types of information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they will buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time forecast of the event’s outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of official presidential actions taken by former President Trump between November 1st and November 7th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. An official presidential action includes executive orders, memoranda, proclamations, and any other formal directive issued by the former President during that timeframe. The resolution will be based on a count of these actions as documented by reputable news sources and official government records.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any major policy announcements or public statements made by former President Trump could shift expectations. Unexpected political developments, such as significant legal rulings or shifts in the political landscape, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, news coverage and media narratives surrounding the former President’s activities will likely play a role in shaping market sentiment. Finally, broader economic or geopolitical events could indirectly affect perceptions of the likelihood of presidential actions, thereby moving the market.
