TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of official presidential actions taken by Donald Trump during a specific week in 2026. It focuses on actions published on a government website within that timeframe, counting various types of directives regardless of their legal impact.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the number of presidential actions published on the "Presidential Actions" tab of whitehouse.gov by 10:00 AM ET on October 11, 2026, covering the period from October 4 to October 10, 2026. Actions include proclamations, executive orders, nominations, appointments, and memoranda. Any item listed on the page counts toward the total, irrespective of its legal effect. The resolution depends solely on the visible publication dates; actions signed earlier but published within the window count, while those emailed but not uploaded, backdated entries, or items appearing in other sections like "Briefings & Statements" do not count. Markets with varying thresholds from 1 to 15 actions resolve to "Yes" if the published count meets or exceeds the specified number.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market represents what individuals are willing to *wager* on, offering a measure of conviction. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, information asymmetry, and differing levels of engagement among poll respondents and market participants. It's common to see this market adjust more rapidly to new information than polls, as traders actively incorporate news and events into their assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the aggregated wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand – if more people believe an outcome is likely, they’ll bid up the price of contracts representing that outcome, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of official presidential actions taken by former President Trump between October 4th and October 10th is verifiable from credible public reporting. An official presidential action includes executive orders, proclamations, memoranda, and any other formal directive issued by the former President during that timeframe. The final count will be determined through publicly available records and reporting from reputable news sources.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any unexpected announcements or statements from former President Trump regarding his activities or plans for the week could shift expectations. Major political developments, such as significant legislative actions or international events, might also influence the perceived likelihood of presidential actions. Furthermore, media coverage and analysis focusing on the former President’s schedule and potential policy initiatives could drive trading activity and alter the odds in this market.
