TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of official presidential actions taken by Donald Trump during a specific week in 2026. The outcome depends solely on the actions published on an official government website by a set deadline, regardless of their legal impact.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the number of presidential actions published on the "Presidential Actions" tab at whitehouse.gov by 10:00 AM ET on Nov 1, 2026, covering the period from Oct 25 to Oct 31, 2026. Actions include proclamations, executive orders, nominations, appointments, and memoranda. Only items visibly listed on the specified page at the exact resolution time count, irrespective of legal effect. The week’s cutoff ensures all publications must appear by the deadline; actions emailed but not uploaded, backdated entries, or those appearing in other sections like “Briefings & Statements" do not qualify. Each market has a distinct threshold (e.g., at least 2, 3, 4…12 actions) that determines a "Yes" resolution, with all markets sharing identical verification processes and eligible action types.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, particularly in events with high uncertainty or strong partisan divides. While polls might show a general leaning, this market provides a quantifiable probability based on financial incentives, potentially offering a more accurate forecast of the actual number of presidential actions taken during the specified timeframe. It’s important to consider both sources of information for a comprehensive understanding.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes – in this case, the number of presidential actions. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing beliefs. Higher prices indicate a greater perceived likelihood of that number of actions being taken, while lower prices suggest a lower probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information efficiently.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of official actions taken by former President Trump between October 25th and October 31st will be used to determine the winning contract. This includes any official proclamations, executive orders, memoranda, or other formal actions released during that period. The resolution will be based on publicly available records and widely accepted definitions of what constitutes a presidential action.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected announcements from former President Trump regarding his activities or planned actions would be a primary driver. Major news events or political developments that might prompt a response from him could also shift the odds. Additionally, any clarification or debate surrounding what constitutes an 'official action' could influence trading activity. Finally, shifts in public sentiment or analyst predictions regarding his level of engagement could also contribute to movements in this market before Nov 1, 2026.
