TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of official presidential actions taken by Donald Trump during a specific week in 2026. It focuses on actions published on a government website within that timeframe, counting items such as executive orders and proclamations regardless of their legal impact.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the number of presidential actions published on the "Presidential Actions" tab of whitehouse.gov during the week of October 11-17, 2026, as verified at 10:00 AM ET on October 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of actions (from 1 to 15), with the market resolving to 'Yes' if the counted actions meet or exceed that threshold. Actions include proclamations, executive orders, nominations, appointments, and memoranda, and any item listed on the page counts regardless of legal effect. The determination relies solely on publication dates displayed on the page, with certain conditions—such as actions emailed but not uploaded by the deadline or items appearing in other sections—not counting toward the total.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as polls don’t directly address the *number* of presidential actions. However, polls gauging public approval of the former president and sentiment towards potential policy initiatives can offer some context. If polls indicate strong public interest in specific actions, it might suggest a higher probability of those actions occurring, potentially influencing trading activity in this market. It's important to remember that prediction markets reflect what people *believe* will happen, not necessarily what they *want* to happen.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is determined solely by supply and demand among traders on Kalshi, and is not influenced by external factors or predetermined values.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of publicly reported presidential actions during the specified week (October 11-17, 2026) is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a count of official actions taken by the former president, as documented by reputable news sources and official government records. The specific definition of a 'presidential action' is defined within the market rules on Kalshi.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any announcements from the former president regarding his plans for the specified week would be a major catalyst. Major political developments, such as significant legislative votes or unexpected policy changes, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, media coverage and public discourse surrounding potential actions could shift market sentiment. Unexpected legal rulings or international events could also play a role in how this market trades before it resolves.
