TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of individuals granted presidential pardons, commutations, or reprieves during October 2026. It categorizes possible outcomes based on specific ranges of pardons issued by the President within that month.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the exact count of individuals to whom the President grants pardons, commutations, or reprieves during October 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct numerical range of pardons: zero, one, two, 3-9, 10-24, 25-99, 100-249, or more than 249. If the number of pardons falls within any of these defined ranges during the specified month, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' The outcome is determined solely by whether the actual count matches any of the prescribed ranges, with no overlap or ambiguity allowed between markets.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture stated intentions, this market represents what people are willing to *put their money* on. This difference can be significant, particularly when dealing with events subject to uncertainty or where respondents may be hesitant to express their true beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies between polling data and the implied probabilities in this market, as traders weigh a wider range of factors and potential scenarios than are typically captured in a poll.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set their own prices for contracts representing different pardon counts. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate predictions risk losing money. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a market that accurately forecasts the number of pardons.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the total number of pardons granted by Donald Trump during the month of October 2026 will be tallied from official White House announcements and documented by reputable news organizations. The market will settle based on this publicly available count, providing a clear and objective determination of the outcome. Any disputes will be resolved based on the most widely accepted and verified information available at the time of settlement.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any legal developments involving Donald Trump, such as indictments, trials, or appeals, could influence expectations regarding potential pardons. Political statements made by Trump himself, or by key figures in his orbit, could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected political events, such as a change in the political landscape or a major scandal, could also play a role. Finally, broader economic or social factors that might affect the political climate could indirectly impact the perceived likelihood of pardons being granted.
