TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of explicit endorsements Donald Trump makes for political candidates on his Truth Social platform within a specific timeframe. It focuses on clear, direct statements of support rather than passive acknowledgments or graphical posts. The outcome depends on whether he reaches certain thresholds of endorsements during the defined period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump issues a specified number of formal endorsements for political candidates on his Truth Social platform between September 26, 2026, and October 2, 2026. An endorsement qualifies if it is a clear, affirmative statement of support—such as explicitly stating "I endorse [candidate] for [office]," "I support [candidate]," "Vote for [candidate]," or "[candidate] has my full support"—and references a specific political race. Reaffirmations of prior endorsements and conditional endorsements count, but ambiguous statements or posts merely stating that a candidate was previously endorsed (e.g., graphics declaring "[Candidate] wins" as fact) do not qualify. Each individual candidate can only be counted once per week, ensuring that repeated endorsements of the same person within the timeframe do not inflate the total. The market resolves to "Yes" if Trump meets or exceeds the threshold specified for each market (ranging from 3 to 50 endorsements); otherwise, it resolves to "No."
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market represents what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, particularly in situations involving uncertainty or where respondents may be hesitant to express their true beliefs. It's common to see discrepancies between polling data and the implied probabilities in this market, as traders weigh a wider range of factors, including Trump’s recent activity and political strategy. These dynamics can lead to a distinct signal from this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – the number of Truth Social endorsements Trump will make. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated and responsive to events. The current price indicates the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if that specific outcome occurs.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a count of the number of endorsements Donald Trump makes on his Truth Social account between September 26th and October 2nd, inclusive. The final count will be determined by reviewing publicly available posts on Truth Social and verifying the endorsements against established criteria. The market will settle to the outcome that accurately reflects the total number of endorsements made during the specified timeframe.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 3, 2026. Any announcements from Trump’s campaign regarding endorsement plans, or a surge in political activity leading up to the end of the week, would likely impact trading. Unexpected political developments, such as major endorsements of opposing candidates, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, Trump’s own activity on Truth Social – whether he signals an intention to endorse more candidates or remains relatively quiet – will be closely watched by traders and influence the market’s direction.
