TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
How many people will Trump endorse this week?
At least 150
- Kalshi
At least 150 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 7, 2026
Time left: 04d:15h:21m
Will Trump endorse at least 150 people on Truth Social this week?
$
Description
This event tracks the number of explicit endorsements Donald Trump makes for political candidates on his Truth Social platform within a specific timeframe. It focuses on clear, direct statements of support rather than implied or indirect references. The outcome depends on whether he reaches certain thresholds of endorsements during the week.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump issues a specified number of clear, affirmative endorsements for political candidates on Truth Social between October 31, 2026, and November 6, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold (20, 35, 50, 75, 100, 150, or 200 endorsements). Any formal endorsement—including reaffirmations of prior support—counts toward the total, provided it is an unambiguous, direct statement of support. Conditional endorsements qualify, but ambiguous statements or passive references (such as graphics merely stating that someone was endorsed) do not. Each individual candidate can only be counted once per week, regardless of how many times they are endorsed. The resolution of each market depends solely on whether Trump meets or exceeds its specific numerical threshold within the defined period.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls gauge stated intentions, this market represents what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, especially in situations with strong partisan biases or where individuals may be hesitant to express their true beliefs to pollsters. It’s important to remember that this market is a forward-looking indicator, incorporating not just current sentiment but also expectations about future events and Trump’s behavior. The market’s assessment may diverge from polls due to differing methodologies and the incentives involved.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible endorsement counts. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the changing expectations. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates all available information and provides a real-time forecast of the likely number of Trump endorsements.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be determined by tallying all endorsements made by Donald Trump on his Truth Social account between October 31st and November 6th, inclusive. Any official statements or announcements regarding endorsements during that timeframe will be considered. The resolution will be based on publicly available information and will be assessed to ensure accuracy and transparency, providing a clear outcome for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any direct announcements from Trump’s campaign team regarding endorsement plans would be a major catalyst. Unexpected political developments, such as key primaries or endorsements of opposing candidates, could also influence trading activity. Increased media coverage focusing on Trump’s potential endorsements or changes in his Truth Social activity could also drive price fluctuations. Finally, major political events occurring during the specified timeframe could shift the market’s expectations and lead to substantial changes in the odds.
