TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of explicit endorsements Donald Trump makes for political candidates on his Truth Social platform within a specified week. It focuses on clear, direct statements of support rather than passive acknowledgments or graphical representations. The outcome depends on whether he reaches certain thresholds of endorsements during that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump issues a specified number of clear, affirmative endorsements for political candidates on his Truth Social platform between October 3, 2026, and October 9, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different endorsement threshold (3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, or 50). An endorsement qualifies if Trump explicitly states support, such as declaring "I endorse [candidate] for [office]" or "Vote for [candidate]," including conditional or reaffirmed endorsements. Ambiguous statements, graphical posts merely indicating prior endorsement status, or indirect references do not count. Each individual candidate can only be counted once per week, regardless of how many times Trump mentions them. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the number of valid endorsements meets or exceeds the threshold for that specific market; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' All markets share the same definition of a qualifying endorsement and the same time frame.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling data. While polls aim to capture stated preferences, this market represents what individuals are willing to *wager* on, offering a measure of conviction. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when events are subject to uncertainty or strategic behavior. Polling averages may indicate a certain level of support for a particular outcome, but this market provides a real-money assessment of the probability as seen by informed traders. This difference can be valuable for a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes—in this case, the number of endorsements. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth indicates how much volume is available at different price points, offering insight into the level of conviction behind each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates available information.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a count of official endorsements made by Donald Trump on his Truth Social account during the specified timeframe (October 3rd to October 9th). Any endorsements made outside of this period will not be counted. The final count will be verified against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. The outcome will be determined by the number of distinct individuals endorsed.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 10, 2026. Unexpected political developments, such as major campaign announcements or controversies involving potential endorsees, could shift trader sentiment. Trump’s public statements or activity on Truth Social, even those not directly related to endorsements, could also have an impact. Additionally, news coverage and analysis of Trump’s endorsement strategy could sway market participants. A sudden surge in endorsements early in the week would likely cause the market to shift towards higher outcome probabilities, while a lack of activity could push it in the opposite direction.
