TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 1:21 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of explicit endorsements Donald Trump makes for political candidates on his Truth Social platform during a specified week. It focuses on clear, direct statements of support rather than passive mentions or graphical representations. The outcome depends on whether he reaches certain thresholds of endorsements within that timeframe.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump issues a specified number of formal endorsements for political candidates on his Truth Social account between October 24, 2026, and October 30, 2026. An endorsement is defined as any clear, affirmative statement of support, which includes direct declarations such as "I endorse [candidate] for [office]" or "Vote for [candidate]." Reaffirmations of prior endorsements and conditional endorsements count toward the total, but ambiguous statements or graphical posts merely stating that someone was endorsed do not qualify. Each individual candidate can only be counted once per week, regardless of how many times they are endorsed. The market resolves to Yes if Trump meets or exceeds the threshold specified in any of the individual markets, which range from three to thirty-five endorsements. The rules ensure that only explicit, active expressions of support are considered, maintaining consistency across all thresholds.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction markets often reflect a different perspective than traditional polls. While polls capture stated preferences, this market aggregates informed speculation about Trump's likely actions. Generally, prediction markets can be more accurate than polls in forecasting events, as traders have a financial incentive to assess probabilities correctly. It's important to remember that polls measure intentions, while this market reflects expectations about what will actually happen. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, social desirability bias in polls, or unique information held by market participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, ranges of the number of endorsements. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand, with higher prices indicating greater perceived probability.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a count of the number of distinct individuals Donald Trump endorses on his Truth Social account between October 24th and October 30th. The final count will be sourced from publicly available posts on Truth Social and verified against credible public sources. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that accurately reflects the final, verified number of endorsements made during the specified timeframe.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any official statements from Trump or his campaign regarding endorsement plans would be a key driver. Unexpected political developments or news events involving potential endorsees could also shift the market. Increased activity on Trump's Truth Social account, particularly hints or announcements about upcoming endorsements, would likely cause price fluctuations. Finally, major shifts in public opinion or media coverage surrounding Trump's endorsement strategy could also impact trading activity and move the market before Oct 31, 2026.
