TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 11:13 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of explicit endorsements Donald Trump makes for political candidates on his Truth Social platform within a specified week. It focuses on clear, direct statements of support rather than indirect or symbolic gestures. The outcome depends on whether he reaches certain thresholds of endorsements during that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump issues a specified number of formal endorsements for political candidates on his Truth Social account between October 17, 2026, and October 23, 2026. An endorsement qualifies if it is a clear, affirmative statement of support—such as explicitly stating 'I endorse [candidate] for [office],' 'I support [candidate],' 'Vote for [candidate],' or '[candidate] has my full support'—and references a specific political race. Reaffirmations of prior endorsements and conditional endorsements count, but ambiguous statements or passive references (e.g., posting a graphic stating '[Candidate] wins' without an active endorsement) do not. Each individual candidate can only be counted once per week, regardless of how many times they are endorsed. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Trump meets or exceeds the threshold specified in any individual market rule; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' Thresholds range from three to thirty endorsements across different markets.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market represents what people are willing to *put their money* on. This can lead to divergences, particularly in situations with high uncertainty or strong partisan sentiment. It’s common to see this market adjust more rapidly to new information than polls, as traders react quickly to developments that could impact the number of Trump endorsements. The difference between these sources is often a matter of revealed preference versus stated preference.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the number of Truth Social endorsements from Donald Trump. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the current price, while significant price swings suggest changing expectations about the event. The current market reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a count of official endorsements made by Donald Trump on his Truth Social account between October 17th and October 23rd. Any statements clearly identifying a candidate or position as endorsed will be counted; retweets or shares will not. The final tally will be sourced from publicly available Truth Social posts and verified against credible news sources.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any announcements from Trump’s campaign or team regarding endorsement plans would be a major catalyst. Unexpected political developments, such as key primary races heating up or prominent candidates dropping out, could also prompt increased endorsement activity. Media coverage focusing on potential endorsements, or even Trump’s own statements on Truth Social hinting at upcoming endorsements, could all move the market. A flurry of activity in the final days of the period, or a complete absence of endorsements, would also have a substantial impact on the outcome of this market.
