TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of explicit endorsements Donald Trump makes for political candidates on his Truth Social platform during a specific week. It focuses on clear, direct statements of support rather than implicit or indirect references. The outcome depends on whether he reaches certain thresholds of endorsements within that timeframe.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Donald Trump issues a specified number of formal endorsements for political candidates on his Truth Social platform between October 10, 2026, and October 16, 2026. An endorsement qualifies if it is a clear, affirmative statement of support—such as explicitly stating "I endorse [candidate] for [office]," "I support [candidate]," "Vote for [candidate]," or "[candidate] has my full support" in reference to a specific race. Reaffirmations of prior endorsements and conditional endorsements count, but ambiguous statements or passive references (e.g., posting a graphic stating '[Candidate] wins' without an active endorsement) do not. Each individual candidate can only be counted once per week, regardless of how many times they are endorsed. The market resolves to "Yes" if Trump meets or exceeds the threshold specified for each market; otherwise, it resolves to "No".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to gauge stated preferences, this market represents what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This can lead to divergences, particularly in situations with strong partisanship or uncertainty. If polls suggest a certain range of endorsements is likely, this market might assign higher or lower probabilities based on factors polls may not fully capture, such as Trump's recent activity or strategic considerations. It's a different way of assessing the potential for endorsements.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different endorsement counts. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and the price movements can signal shifts in expectations regarding Trump's endorsement activity.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of endorsements Donald Trump makes on his Truth Social account between October 10th and October 16th. Any public posts clearly indicating an endorsement will be counted, and the final tally will be determined by a review of his Truth Social activity during that timeframe. The outcome will be based on publicly available information.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any official announcements from Trump's campaign regarding endorsement plans would be a major catalyst. Increased or decreased activity on his Truth Social account, particularly hints about upcoming endorsements, could also shift the odds. News coverage focusing on potential endorsement targets or political strategies could influence trader sentiment. Finally, unexpected political developments or controversies involving potential endorsees could also impact this market as traders adjust their predictions based on new information.
