TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 1:17 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of nominations President Donald Trump sends to the U.S. Senate within a specific one-week period. The outcome depends on whether the published count meets or exceeds various thresholds. All determinations are based on official records from the White House website at a set time after the period ends.
Kalshi
All markets in this event are resolved based on the number of nominations Donald Trump sends to the U.S. Senate between September 27, 2026, and October 3, 2026, as officially recorded on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov and checked at 10:00 AM ET on October 4, 2026. Each nomination counted—regardless of how many individuals are named in a single announcement—contributes to the total. Markets with varying thresholds (at least 1, 3, 5, or 10 nominations) resolve to 'Yes' if the total published nominations meet or exceed their respective threshold. The week in question runs from September 27 through October 3, and the resolution relies exclusively on the publicly visible data at the specified check time, with no external interpretation or adjustment.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions in this market to traditional polling averages, as polls don't typically ask about the *number* of nominations a president will make within a specific timeframe. However, broader political polling regarding President Trump's approval ratings and the political climate in the Senate could offer some context. If polls indicate strong Republican support, it might suggest a higher likelihood of increased nominations, while a more divided political landscape could point towards fewer. It’s important to remember that this market reflects not just *if* something will happen, but *how many times*.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different nomination counts. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the changing expectations. The contracts are priced between 0 and 100, representing the implied probability of that specific number of nominations being sent to the Senate. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the number of nominations sent to the Senate by former President Trump between September 27th and October 3rd will be counted. This count will be based on official Senate records and reporting from reputable news sources. The market will settle to the number of nominations confirmed by these sources, representing the final outcome as determined by publicly available information. Traders should monitor news coverage during this period to stay informed about potential developments.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any announcements from former President Trump regarding potential nominees, or statements from Senate leadership about the confirmation process, would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected political events, such as a major legislative debate or a shift in the political landscape, could also impact trader sentiment. Additionally, any news regarding potential vacancies that need filling could influence the market. Monitoring these developments and assessing their potential impact on the number of nominations is key to understanding how this market might evolve.
