TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of judicial or other presidential nominations sent by Donald Trump to the U.S. Senate within a specific week. The resolution depends on whether the total nominations meet or exceed certain thresholds.
Kalshi
Several markets resolve based on the number of nominations Donald Trump sends to the U.S. Senate from October 18, 2026, through October 24, 2026. The lowest market resolves if at least one nomination is sent, the next if at least ten are sent, a further market if at least twenty are sent, and the highest if at least forty are sent. Resolution relies exclusively on the publication dates displayed on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov as viewed at 10:00 AM ET on October 25, 2026. Each nomination count is evaluated separately, meaning that multiple nominations for the same individual within the period count individually toward the total. All markets share the same evaluation timeframe and source, ensuring consistency in how the outcomes are determined.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market aggregates informed speculation about the likelihood of various outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like the incentives for accurate prediction, the ability to incorporate a wider range of information, and the influence of strategic trading. It’s common to see this market adjust more quickly to new information than polls, as traders actively price in developments related to the nomination process. This dynamic can provide a unique signal beyond what standard polling data offers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible number of nominations. The price of a contract reflects the market's probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices fluctuate, providing a dynamic representation of collective belief. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the final outcome, and their actions collectively determine the market's price signals. The current top market is for a specific number of nominations, and its price reflects the perceived likelihood of that scenario.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the number of nominations sent to the Senate by former President Trump during the week of October 18th to October 24th will be counted. The resolution will be based on official Senate records and publicly available news sources documenting the nominations submitted during that period. The market will settle to the exact number of nominations, providing a clear and objective determination of the outcome based on established documentation.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any official announcements from former President Trump regarding potential nominations would be a key catalyst. Unexpected political developments, such as changes in Senate leadership or major legislative priorities, could also influence the market. Furthermore, news reports detailing behind-the-scenes discussions or potential roadblocks in the nomination process could drive price fluctuations. Finally, any legal challenges or controversies surrounding potential nominees could impact the perceived likelihood of their confirmation and, consequently, the market's price.
