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How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?
4
- Polymarket
4 - Polymarket
1W
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Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 20h:55m:46s
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Wisconsin in the 2026 midterm elections?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Wisconsin in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Wisconsin US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Wisconsin in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Wisconsin US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
This market’s current odds reflect trader expectations for Democratic performance in Wisconsin’s House races, often showing a modest gap compared to polling averages. Traders may price in factors like candidate quality, local dynamics, and economic conditions that polls sometimes miss, leading to small but meaningful differences between market implied probabilities and poll-based forecasts for the same contest.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders actively set prices through buying and selling contracts that pay out based on the final seat count. The top outcome’s current chance stands at 35.5%, with volume of $16,444 showing liquidity and interest as the election nears. Price shifts depend on new polling, fundraising reports, and shifting voter sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of Democratic seats won in Wisconsin’s congressional races will set the payout, regardless of trader predictions or pre-election polls.
