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How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/20 - 9/26)
kalshi

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign by 2026-10-10?

Volume:
$20,481
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event tracks presidential activity by focusing on the number of formal directives issued within a specific timeframe. It provides insight into the pace and volume of executive actions taken by the President during a defined week. The outcome depends solely on the official record of these directives as published in the Federal Register.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the number of Executive Orders signed by the President between September 20, 2026, and September 26, 2026. An Executive Order is defined as a numbered presidential directive formally titled “Executive Order,” signed by the President, published in the Federal Register, and possessing the force of law. The signing date recorded in the Federal Register determines the relevant period, even if the publication occurs after the period ends. All officially designated Executive Orders with sequential numbering count toward the total, regardless of later revocation or amendment. The contract expires two weeks after the period ends, with the possibility of an earlier expiration if an Executive Order dated beyond the period is published. Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the President signs more than the specified number of Executive Orders (0, 1, or 2, depending on the market), with each market having a distinct threshold for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump executive order market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of Executive Orders signed by former President Trump between September 20, 2026 and September 26, 2026. You’ll find a price history showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $20,481, reflecting the overall interest in this prediction. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to polling averages, as there are no readily available polls specifically forecasting the number of Executive Orders a former president might sign during a defined week in the future. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate information from a wider range of sources than polls alone, including news events, expert opinions, and even subtle indicators that might not be captured in traditional surveys. This can lead to divergences between prediction market probabilities and those suggested by polling data.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if the specified number of Executive Orders are signed during the defined timeframe. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on their own analysis and expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of Executive Orders signed by former President Trump between September 20, 2026 and September 26, 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official records of Executive Orders issued during that period. The final price will reflect which outcome – the number of Executive Orders signed – was realized, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the result in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major political developments involving the former president, such as public statements, legal challenges, or shifts in the political landscape, could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected economic news or international events might also play a role, as they could affect the former president's policy priorities and actions. Finally, any credible reporting or analysis suggesting a change in the likelihood of Executive Orders being signed could lead to shifts in the market’s probabilities.