TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
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Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 22, 2026
Latest in Politics
Closed: Oct 14, 10:51 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the number of formal presidential directives signed within a specific timeframe. It focuses on official actions taken by the President, recorded and published through governmental channels. The outcome depends solely on the count of these directives during the defined period.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the number of Executive Orders signed by the President between October 4, 2026, and October 10, 2026. An Executive Order must be formally titled, numbered, signed by the President, published in the Federal Register, and possess the force of law to count. The signing date, as recorded in the Federal Register, determines inclusion in the specified period, even if publication occurs later. All officially designated Executive Orders with sequential numbering are counted, regardless of later revocation or amendment. The contract expires two weeks after the period ends, with potential early expiration if relevant orders are published outside the period.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, especially in situations where strong opinions or social desirability bias might influence poll responses. While polls may indicate a certain level of support for a particular outcome, this market provides a view of the perceived probability of that outcome actually occurring, based on financial incentives. It's important to consider both sources of information for a comprehensive understanding.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the number of executive orders signed. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations regarding the President’s actions during the specified timeframe.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the number of executive orders officially signed by the President between October 4th and October 10th, 2026, will be used to determine the winning outcome. The final count will be sourced from official government records and widely available news sources. The market will then settle based on which outcome – the number of executive orders signed – matches the verified data.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major policy announcements from the administration, shifts in the political landscape, or unexpected legislative developments could all influence trader expectations. Any news related to the President’s agenda, potential areas for executive action, or the overall political climate could lead to changes in the market’s pricing. Furthermore, significant economic events or international crises might prompt the President to issue executive orders, impacting the perceived probability of different outcomes in this market.
