TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 04d:13h:22m
Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Oct 18, 2026 and Oct 24, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks the number of formal presidential directives signed within a specific timeframe. It focuses on official actions taken by the head of the executive branch during a defined period, reflecting administrative priorities and actions.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the number of executive orders signed by the President between October 18, 2026, and October 24, 2026. An executive order is defined as a numbered presidential directive formally titled “Executive Order,” signed by the President, published in the Federal Register, and possessing the force of law. All such orders with sequential numbering count toward the total, regardless of later revocation or amendment. The signing date recorded in the Federal Register determines inclusion in the specified period. For instance, an order published after the period but bearing a signing date within it counts. The contract expires two weeks after the period ends, with the possibility of an earlier expiration if orders dated beyond the period are published. Markets resolve to "Yes" if the number of orders signed exceeds the threshold specified in each market (0, 1, 2, 3, or 4).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as polls on specific Executive Order counts during a defined week are not commonly conducted. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information than polls, including expert opinions, news events, and even sentiment analysis. This can lead to differences between the implied probabilities in this market and those suggested by public opinion surveys. It’s important to remember that this market reflects what traders believe will happen, not necessarily what people currently expect.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the number of Executive Orders signed. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the changing expectations. The current top outcome, 'Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Oct 18, 2026 and Oct 24, 2026?', has a chance percentage of 1.0%.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official number of Executive Orders signed by former President Trump and publicly documented between October 18 and October 24, 2026. The final count will be sourced from official government records and widely available news sources. This market aims to predict a factual outcome based on publicly available data, and the resolution process ensures transparency and accuracy.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Major political developments, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected legislative actions, could shift expectations about the likelihood of Executive Orders being issued. News regarding the former President’s schedule and priorities could also play a role. Additionally, broader economic conditions or unforeseen events could prompt a change in policy direction, potentially leading to more or fewer Executive Orders. Any information that alters perceptions of the political landscape could impact trading activity and, consequently, the odds in this market.
