TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/11 - 10/17)
kalshi

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign by 2026-10-31?

Volume:
$111,747
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event tracks the number of formal presidential directives signed within a specific timeframe. It focuses on official actions taken by the head of state during a defined period, reflecting administrative priorities and actions. The outcome depends purely on documented executive actions without considering their subsequent effects or revisions.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the total count of valid Executive Orders signed by the President between October 11, 2026 and October 17, 2026, as documented in the Federal Register. A valid Executive Order must be formally titled, sequentially numbered, signed by the President, published in the Federal Register, and possess the force of law at the time of signing. The signing date recorded in the Federal Register determines period eligibility, meaning orders published after the period but signed during it count. All properly designated Executive Orders are included in the count regardless of later revocation or amendment. Contracts expire two weeks after the period ends, with possible early expiration if relevant orders are published late. Markets with thresholds of 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 orders resolve to 'Yes' if the actual count exceeds the respective threshold.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Trump executive order market tracks the current odds of various outcomes – specifically, the number of executive orders signed by former President Trump between October 11th and October 17th. It displays the implied probabilities based on trading activity, along with the total volume traded, currently at $111,747, and the 24-hour volume, which is $514. You can also view the price history to see how the market has evolved over time and assess trader sentiment regarding the potential number of executive orders.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated opinions, this market represents what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This can lead to divergences, especially when events are subject to strategic considerations or hidden information. It's common to see prediction markets adjust more quickly to new information than polls, as traders actively incorporate developments into their assessments. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can sometimes be significant, offering a unique insight into perceived likelihoods.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different numbers of executive orders. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price isn't set by a bookmaker, but emerges from the interactions of numerous individuals, each with their own information and expectations. The market mechanism aims to aggregate diverse perspectives into a single, real-time probability assessment.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of executive orders signed by former President Trump between October 11th and October 17th is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be sourced from official government records and news agencies to ensure accuracy. The market will settle to the contract corresponding to the actual number of executive orders signed during the specified timeframe, providing a clear and objective outcome for all participants.

Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 31, 2026. Any official statements from former President Trump regarding his plans for executive actions would be a major catalyst. Unexpected political developments, such as legislative setbacks or international crises, could also influence the likelihood of executive orders being issued. Furthermore, media coverage and analysis focusing on the potential for executive action could sway trader sentiment. Finally, any clarification regarding the legal authority for specific executive orders could impact the market's pricing, as traders adjust their expectations based on the feasibility of implementation.