TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 10:23 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks legislative activity by monitoring how many bills the President enacts into law during a specific month. It reflects the pace of governmental decision-making and the flow of approved policies into effect within a defined timeframe. The outcome depends purely on the official count of signed bills, including joint resolutions, without regard to their content or impact.
Kalshi
The event determines whether the President signs a minimum number of bills into law during October 2026, with multiple threshold-based markets resolving to 'Yes' if the signed count exceeds specific values. Each market sets a progressively higher threshold—10, 12, 14, 16, or 18 bills—meaning that as the actual number of signed bills increases, more markets will resolve positively. All markets include joint resolutions in their counts. The resolution hinges solely on the final tally of officially signed bills for that month, without evaluating the nature or impact of individual legislation.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polling tends to capture stated preferences, while this market represents what people are willing to put their money on. This difference can be significant, especially for events perceived as having a high degree of uncertainty. It’s common to see discrepancies between poll numbers and the implied probabilities in this market, as traders weigh a broader range of factors, including potential unforeseen events and the President’s legislative priorities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different bill signing counts, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price will move as new information becomes available and as traders update their beliefs about the likely number of bills signed by President Trump in October 2026.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of bills signed into law by President Trump during the month of October 2026 will be the determining factor. This will be based on official records and reporting from reliable news sources. The resolution will reflect the total count of bills formally signed by the President during that specific timeframe, as documented in official government records.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major legislative initiatives proposed by President Trump, shifts in the composition of Congress following the 2026 midterm elections, and unexpected geopolitical events could all influence trading activity. Public statements from the President regarding his legislative agenda, key committee hearings, and the progress of specific bills through Congress are also likely to impact the market. Any news suggesting a change in the President’s priorities or the likelihood of legislative success will be closely watched by traders.
