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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?

Volume:
$15,877

1

 - Polymarket

1 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 3:43 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,290
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,878
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,949
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$467
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

more than 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$344
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$241
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the September earthquake count market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of 6.5 magnitude or greater earthquakes occurring worldwide between September 14th and September 20th. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $224, and the total volume traded to date, at $15,877. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is driven by supply and demand; if more traders believe an outcome is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on data from recognized seismological agencies that track earthquake activity worldwide. The final count of 6.5 magnitude or greater earthquakes occurring between September 14th and September 20th will determine the winning outcome in this market. The data will be assessed to ensure accuracy and consistency.

Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. A significant earthquake occurring before the end of the period would likely increase the probability of higher outcomes, driving up prices for those shares. Conversely, a period of seismic inactivity could lower expectations and decrease prices. News reports about increased or decreased seismic activity in known earthquake zones could also shift market sentiment. Finally, any revisions or updates from seismological agencies regarding earthquake data could also impact this market.