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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?

Volume:
$46,753

0

 - Polymarket

0 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 1, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 5:11 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,036
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

3

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.3¢
N/A
$36,546
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,211
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

more than 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$830
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$670
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$551
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the global earthquake count market on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and price movements surrounding predictions of how many earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or above will occur worldwide between August 24 and August 30. It displays current top-outcome probabilities alongside 24-hour volume of $351, letting users monitor market sentiment and trading activity as the event window approaches.

Currently, this market reflects a collective trader assessment that differs noticeably from many published geological analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide detailed risk models based on historical data, the odds here capture a dynamic, crowd-sourced outlook that can shift rapidly with new seismic activity or data releases. Monitoring both sources together offers a broader perspective on expected earthquake frequency for the coming week.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders manually set prices through buying and selling contracts that represent possible outcomes. The current top outcome probability displayed reflects the aggregated user expectations and available liquidity, with volume sitting at $46,753. Prices adjust continuously as new information emerges, allowing participants to bet on revisions to the expected earthquake count.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number of recorded earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or above during August 24 to August 30 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count is determined by widely accepted geological databases and news sources that track global seismic events, ensuring an objective resolution once the period ends.

Any significant seismic developments during the forecast window can shift this market sharply — for instance, early magnitude 6.5+ quakes, revised geological hazard reports, or sudden shifts in tectonic activity monitored by institutions. Additionally, unexpected data errors or revisions in historical earthquake logs could also influence trader sentiment and adjust odds in the final days before Aug 31, 2026.