TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.4b

24H VOL:

$253,547,375

24H TRANSACTIONS:

951,753,729

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,134,096,931

829,404

Markets across

15,000

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

955

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes February 23 - March 1?
polymarket
kalshi

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes February 23 - March 1? Odds & Prediction Markets

Volume:
$297,300

Closed: Feb 28, 7:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

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Description

This event group contains a critical data integrity failure. The Polymarket data describes earthquake magnitude tracking (6.5+) for February 23 - March 1, 2026, while the Kalshi data describes TSA airport screening volumes for the same week. These are entirely different underlying events with no logical connection, making unified resolution impossible.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The event group mixes two fundamentally different underlying events: earthquake magnitude counts (Polymarket) and TSA airport screening volumes (Kalshi). These have no logical relationship and cannot resolve against a single outcome.Hero tip: This is a data integrity failure, not a trading opportunity. The group label references earthquakes exclusively, but Kalshi markets reference TSA screenings with no earthquake component. Do not place trades until the group is corrected or split. Contact support immediately.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Earthquake magnitude tracking. Resolves YES/NO based on count of earthquakes 6.5+ magnitude occurring worldwide February 23 - March 1, 2026. Resolution source: USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). Markets cover outcomes: exactly 0, exactly 1, exactly 2, exactly 3, exactly 4, exactly 5, and more than 5 earthquakes.
  • Kalshi: TSA airport screening volume tracking. Resolves YES if weekly average TSA airport screenings exceed specified thresholds (ranging 1.8M to 2.8M) for week ending March 01, 2026. Resolution source: TSA official data. 21 separate markets with different screening volume thresholds. No earthquake component.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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