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How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
polymarket

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?

Volume:
$55,253

12

 - Polymarket

12 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 8, 2026

Closed: Sep 8, 6:51 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

12

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

≤6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,757
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

more than 13

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,464
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,662
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,576
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,078
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,011
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the global earthquake count market, showing how traders view the likelihood of specific seismic activity levels during the defined window. It also displays 24-hour volume of $2,124 and top outcome probabilities, letting users monitor market sentiment and liquidity for this event.

This market resolves around Sep 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Seismic monitoring agencies will provide the final count of earthquakes meeting the specified magnitude and timing criteria, closing the market based on objective, widely accepted data.

Several signals could impact this market before Sep 7, 2026. Significant seismic activity — especially any series of strong quakes — would push probabilities upward. Conversely, a quiet period in global tectonic movement may lower expected counts. Updates from geological survey institutions, shifts in tectonic stress models, and even extreme weather events that trigger underwater landslides can influence trader sentiment. Media coverage of unrest regions and academic studies on aftershock probabilities also play a role, as does any unexpected volcanic eruption that might mask or accompany major seismic events.