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How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
polymarket

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Volume:
$38,759

7

 - Polymarket

7 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 10, 3:04 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

7

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,630
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

≤6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>13

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

8

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,394
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$884
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$758
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$752
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for the earthquake count market, showing how traders view the likelihood of seismic activity during the specified period. It displays current probabilities alongside $37,010 in total volume and $7,904 in 24-hour volume, giving users insight into market sentiment and liquidity for bets on earthquake frequency.

Currently, traders on Polymarket give a very high probability to the outcome of six or fewer quakes, reflecting strong confidence in a quieter seismic week. This contrasts with many analyst forecasts, which often highlight regional fault-line tensions and historical August activity spikes. The gap between market odds and expert opinions may tighten if new geological data surfaces, or if monitoring agencies issue alerts for high-risk zones during the week.

This market resolves around Aug 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Seismic monitoring agencies will provide the official count of earthquakes meeting the magnitude and timing thresholds, and the platform will finalize the market based on that data. No further interpretation or judgment is required beyond the published records.

Any significant earthquake above magnitude 5.5 during the week will immediately shift market probabilities, especially if it occurs in a closely watched region. Additionally, statements from geological survey bodies about heightened tectonic activity, or reported aftershock sequences following a major quake, could cause rapid reassessments. Sudden drops in seismic activity, conversely, might push odds further toward the lower-count outcome as traders adjust expectations.