TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

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2,388,728,490

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$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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39%

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61%

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How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
polymarket

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?

Volume:
$60,141

>13

 - Polymarket

>13 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 2:02 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

>13

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
38.1¢
N/A
$21,490
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

13

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,385
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,289
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,036
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,368
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,756
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,682
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,673
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,462
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the earthquake frequency market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the likelihood of experiencing a specific number of major seismic events over a set period. It displays current probabilities alongside 24-hour volume of $763 to show trader sentiment and liquidity. This focused view helps users monitor how the market evaluates the chances of significant earthquakes during the defined window.

This market resolves around Aug 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Seismic monitoring agencies will provide the official count of magnitude 5.5-or-higher earthquakes worldwide during the specified dates, and the market will close based on that verified tally.

Any significant seismic developments — such as a series of strong quakes or unexpected tectonic activity — could shift this market sharply. Reports from monitoring agencies, geological surveys, and real-time sensor networks will drive rapid price adjustments. Additionally, broader geophysical news, including aftershock sequences or volcanic unrest, may influence trader sentiment and volume in the final days.