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How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Volume:
$10,502

4.95% or below

 - Kalshi

4.95% or below - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.95% or below

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,132
N/A
N/A
$277
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.97% or below

View
100%
83%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,092
N/A
N/A
$354
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.96% or below

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,047
N/A
N/A
$318
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.94% or below

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$983
N/A
N/A
$330
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.98% or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$602
N/A
N/A
$237
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.8% or below

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$721
N/A
N/A
$352
Settled
No
kalshi

4.87% or below

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$681
N/A
N/A
$513
Settled
No
kalshi

4.92% or below

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$670
N/A
N/A
$376
Settled
No
kalshi

4.88% or below

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$655
N/A
N/A
$338
Settled
No
kalshi

4.84% or below

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$575
N/A
N/A
$441
Settled
No
kalshi

4.91% or below

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$445
N/A
N/A
$204
Settled
No
kalshi

4.93% or below

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$332
N/A
N/A
$223
Settled
No
kalshi

4.83% or below

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$324
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

4.9% or below

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
$237
Settled
No
kalshi

4.81% or below

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
No
kalshi

4.82% or below

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

4.79% or below

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

4.85% or below

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
$108
Settled
No
kalshi

4.86% or below

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$144
N/A
N/A
$116
Settled
No
kalshi

4.89% or below

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
Total markets: 20

Description

This set of markets tracks potential declines in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield over a specific week in late October 2026. Each market has a different threshold, representing various levels of yield decrease. The outcome depends on whether the official daily yield published by the U.S. Treasury falls below the specified level at any point during the period.

Kalshi

All markets in this set share a common structure for determining resolution. Each market specifies a yield threshold, expressed as a percentage, and a defined period from October 23, 2026, to October 30, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if, on any business day within this window, the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, falls below the specified threshold. Resolution relies exclusively on these official daily figures; intraday fluctuations are irrelevant. Once the threshold is breached, the market may expire early per Rule 7.2. If not met by the end of the period, expiration occurs at 10:00 AM ET on the business day following October 30, 2026. Any inability to determine an expiration value triggers Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook. Post-expiration revisions to the underlying yield data do not affect the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 10Y Treasury yield market tracks the current price, 24-hour volume of $1,643, and total volume of $10,325. It also displays the implied probability of different yield levels being reached by the resolution date. Traders on Kalshi directly influence these numbers by placing buy and sell orders, creating a dynamic reflection of market expectations. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how sentiment is shifting regarding future interest rate movements, offering a real-time view of predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts predict a continued rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, this market suggests a possibility of a decline. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on economic models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals willing to put capital behind their beliefs. This difference highlights the potential value of prediction markets in capturing a broader range of perspectives and incorporating real-time information.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy or sell contracts representing different yield levels at any time. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that yield level being reached by Oct 30, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and efficient way to aggregate information about future expectations. The market's price discovery process allows for a real-time assessment of risk and opportunity related to the 10-year Treasury yield.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual 10-year US Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to the lowest 10-year Treasury yield recorded during the trading day on October 30, 2026. This data will be sourced from publicly available financial data providers and will be used to determine which contracts payout. Traders should monitor reliable financial news sources as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about the prevailing yield levels.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates, and geopolitical events that affect global economic stability are all potential catalysts. Stronger-than-expected economic growth could push yields higher, while a recessionary environment might drive them lower. Furthermore, shifts in investor risk appetite and demand for safe-haven assets like US Treasuries could also influence the direction of this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding price movements.