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How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 6, 2026?
kalshi

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Nov 6, 2026?

Oct 30, 2026, 7:05 PM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 3:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$0N/A

4.92% or below

 - Kalshi

4.92% or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:14h:32m

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.93% by Nov 6, 2026?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.Kalshi isn't quoting a YES price right now Illiquid market 3 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.92% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.91% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.9% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
19¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.89% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
21¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.88% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
22¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.87% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
24¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.86% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
25¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.85% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
25¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.84% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
27¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.83% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
27¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.82% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
26¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.81% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
26¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.8% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
25¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.79% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
24¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.78% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
23¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.77% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
22¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.76% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
21¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.75% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.74% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
kalshi

4.73% or below

Trade
N/A
N/A
19¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 14h 32m
Active
Total markets: 20

Description

These markets track how low the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds might fall during a specific period in late 2026. Each market has a different threshold, representing a progressively lower yield level. The outcome depends on whether the official daily yield published by the U.S. Treasury dips below the specified level at any point during the observation window.

Kalshi

All markets share a common structure for resolution, focusing on the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury over the period from October 30, 2026, to November 6, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold yield level, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if, on any business day within this window, the official yield falls below the specified threshold. Resolution relies exclusively on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Intraday values are disregarded, and any revisions to the yield data after the expiration period are not considered when determining the outcome. Each market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day following the final day of the observation period, unless an early expiration occurs if the threshold is met. If the expiration value cannot be determined, the contract is subject to the relevant rulebook provision for unresolved contracts.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 10Y Treasury yield market tracks the current price of contracts representing different yield levels. You’ll find a price history chart showing how expectations have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume of $0. The total volume traded on this market is currently $0. This allows traders to see how much activity there is and understand the overall interest in different possible outcomes for the 10-year Treasury yield. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds represent a collective forecast of where the 10Y Treasury yield will land. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on individual models and assumptions. While both aim to predict the future, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing for a potentially more accurate and dynamic prediction. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts can vary widely, and this market provides a single, continuously updated expectation based on actual trading activity. Comparing this market to polls of economic experts reveals differing perspectives on the direction of interest rates.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts corresponding to specific 10-year Treasury yield levels. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that yield level being reached by the resolution date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular yield, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the latest information and expectations of participants. The current price curve represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 10-year US Treasury yield is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield used for resolution will be the daily yield published by the US Department of the Treasury. The contract corresponding to the yield level closest to the actual yield at the resolution date will be considered the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts for that yield level will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for other yield levels will not. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, are major drivers of Treasury yields. Unexpected economic data releases, including inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, can also cause substantial shifts in expectations. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions can influence investor sentiment and demand for US Treasury bonds. Any news that alters the outlook for economic growth or inflation is likely to move this market, as traders adjust their forecasts for the 10Y Treasury yield.