TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

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5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
polymarket
kalshi

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Total volume:
$56,879
Volume 24h:
$6,566
298%
Liquidity:
$1,944
11%
Open interest:
$27,115
3%

5.23% or below

 - Kalshi

5.23% or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Time left: 15d:14h:49m

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 28% Illiquid market 15 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.23% or below

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$7,472
9%
9%
$3,053
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.2% or below

Trade
99%
24%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,535
156%
330%
$546
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.21% or below

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,404
0.59%
72%
$299
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.22% or below

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,152
37%
212%
$278
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.19% or below

Trade
89%
1%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,066
16%
72%
$528
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.17% or below

Trade
88%
20%
Yes 99¢No 71¢
70¢
N/A
$1,454
87%
124%
$554
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.16% or below

Trade
80%
24%
Yes 100¢No 80¢
80¢
N/A
$319
161%
172%
$185
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.14% or below

Trade
78%
10%
Yes 80¢No 83¢
63¢
N/A
$1,124
8%
211%
$719
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.15% or below

Trade
82%
66%
Yes 82¢No 43¢
25¢
N/A
$712
0.85%
40%
$573
2w 1d 14h
active
polymarket

Below 5.15%

Trade
75%
19%
Yes 87¢No 29¢
16¢
$19
$3,034
14%
359%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
76.3%
Yes 84.5¢No 36¢
Avg: 20.5¢Max: 25¢
kalshi

5.12% or below

Trade
71%
51%
Yes 79¢No 92¢
71¢
N/A
$893
0.59%
68%
$692
2w 1d 14h
active
polymarket

Below 5.12%

Trade
53%
12%
Yes 74¢No 49¢
23¢
$110
$3,072
31%
69%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
57.1%
Yes 76.5¢No 70.5¢
Avg: 47¢Max: 71¢
kalshi

5.08% or below

Trade
55%
37%
Yes 68¢No 84¢
52¢
N/A
$754
8%
153%
$493
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.07% or below

Trade
51%
Yes 77¢No 70¢
47¢
N/A
$578
0%
348%
$434
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.03% or below

Trade
45%
Yes 69¢No 80¢
49¢
N/A
$181
0%
N/A
$181
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.04% or below

Trade
44%
Yes 70¢No 74¢
44¢
N/A
$361
0%
3%
$337
2w 1d 14h
active
polymarket

Below 5.09%

Trade
38%
5%
Yes 56¢No 61¢
17¢
$300
$2,046
26%
87%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
kalshi

5.09% or below

Trade
22%
Yes 80¢No 66¢
46¢
N/A
$387
0%
338%
$386
2w 1d 14h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
35.5%
Yes 68¢No 63.5¢
Avg: 31.5¢Max: 46¢
kalshi

5.18% or below

Trade
72%
17%
Yes 92¢No 97¢
89¢
N/A
$986
5%
84%
$655
2w 1d 14h
active
polymarket

Below 5.18%

Trade
20%
40%
Yes 97¢No 79¢
76¢
$39
$2,643
30%
75%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
34.1%
Yes 94.5¢No 88¢
Avg: 82.5¢Max: 89¢
polymarket

Below 5.05%

Trade
29%
3%
Yes 59¢No 70¢
29¢
$363
$1,499
45%
586%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
kalshi

5.05% or below

Trade
16%
Yes 74¢No 75¢
49¢
N/A
$237
0%
323%
$201
2w 1d 14h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
27.2%
Yes 66.5¢No 72.5¢
Avg: 39¢Max: 49¢
kalshi

5.01% or below

Trade
27%
11%
Yes 64¢No 84¢
48¢
N/A
$247
39%
N/A
$178
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.11% or below

Trade
24%
8%
Yes 74¢No 64¢
38¢
N/A
$492
42%
61%
$387
2w 1d 14h
active
kalshi

5.1% or below

Trade
24%
Yes 85¢No 97¢
82¢
N/A
$381
0%
365%
$353
2w 1d 14h
active
Total markets: 25 of 39

Description

This group of markets asks forecasters to predict how low the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will fall during the month of October 2026. The markets are structured as a series of binary questions, each testing whether the yield will fall below a specific threshold.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge on the specific dates considered for resolution and whether weekends are included in the evaluation period.Hero tip: Focus on markets with thresholds that align with your yield expectations and consider the potential for yield fluctuations near the end of October. Account for the differing resolution dates.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if the 10-year Treasury yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2nd and October 31st, 2026. Resolves 'No' if no qualifying value is published by November 13th, 11:59 PM ET. Source: Department of the Treasury.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below a specified value on any *business day* between October 1st and October 30th, 2026. No explicit 'No' resolution deadline provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Kalshi

All markets cover the period from October 1, 2026, to October 30, 2026, and resolve based on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. For each market, if the published yield falls below the specified threshold on any business day within this period, the market resolves to 'Yes.' Intraday values are not considered; only the first published value for each business day is used, unless the Exchange identifies a material error. If a threshold is met, the market may expire early per Rule 7.2. Otherwise, expiration occurs by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first. All markets share these core resolution and expiration mechanics, differing only in their yield thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the collective prediction on where the 10-year Treasury yield will fall in October. Currently, there's a strong consensus view, with traders assigning a 75.0% probability to Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% in October? on Polymarket, and a 99.0% probability to Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.24% by Oct 30, 2026? on Kalshi. The aggregated volume across both platforms is $56,879, indicating significant interest in this financial market. The 24-hour volume stands at $6,566, demonstrating active trading. This allows for a comprehensive view of market sentiment regarding future interest rate movements.

Prediction market odds often provide a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts frequently rely on economic models and qualitative assessments, while this market reflects the aggregated wisdom of traders directly incentivized to make accurate predictions. These traders weigh various factors, including economic data, Federal Reserve policy, and global events, to determine the probability of different yield levels. While analyst forecasts can be valuable, the real-time price discovery in this market can offer a more dynamic and potentially more accurate signal of future expectations. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market perceives risks or opportunities differently.

Prices for the same underlying event can vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, the specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform may create slight discrepancies. Differences in margin requirements or the availability of certain order types can also contribute to price divergence. While both platforms ultimately aim to reflect the same underlying probability, these platform-specific characteristics can lead to temporary variations in the odds offered for this market.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the lowest 10-year Treasury yield recorded in October is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will reflect whether the yield fell below the levels specified in the various outcomes offered on Polymarket and Kalshi. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the verified result. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome, based on publicly available data.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected inflation data releases, shifts in Federal Reserve policy (such as interest rate hikes or cuts), and geopolitical events are all potential catalysts. Strong economic growth could push yields higher, while a recessionary outlook could drive them lower. Changes in global demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, as well as shifts in investor risk appetite, will also play a role. Monitoring these factors closely will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market and anticipating potential price movements before Nov 1, 2026.