TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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How high will the S&P get this year?
kalshi

How high will the S&P get this year?

Jan 1, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$2,254,807
Volume 24h:
$42,335
21%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$901,372
3%

8,000 or above

 - Kalshi

8,000 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7999.99 by Jan 1, 2027?

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 58.3¢ buys you 172 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $172 | Net Profit: $72 Multiplier: 1.72x | ROI: 72% High Projected APY: 1,149% 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

8,000 or above

Trade
59%
14%
Yes 58.3¢No 42.6¢
0.9¢
N/A
$404,571
1%
2%
$148,180
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

8,200 or above

Trade
24%
Yes 26.8¢No 75.8¢
2.6¢
N/A
$194,248
0.81%
2%
$89,687
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

8,400 or above

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 13.6¢No 88.7¢
2.3¢
N/A
$121,062
0.11%
2%
$53,742
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

9,000 or above

Trade
5%
Yes 4.7¢No 98.7¢
3.4¢
N/A
$92,191
2%
4%
$56,817
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

8,600 or above

Trade
5%
4%
Yes 6.4¢No 95.7¢
2.1¢
N/A
$107,926
4%
6%
$39,401
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

8,800 or above

Trade
3%
Yes 6.4¢No 96.9¢
3.3¢
N/A
$55,567
0%
0.82%
$35,119
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

7,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$384,831
N/A
N/A
$157,186
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
kalshi

7,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.2¢
N/A
$210,304
N/A
N/A
$61,743
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

7,200 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$452,013
N/A
N/A
$172,285
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

7,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$232,094
N/A
N/A
$87,211
2mo 2w 4d
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether the S&P 500 index will reach 7999.99 before January 1, 2027. Currently, the probability of this occurring on Kalshi is 69.9%. Resolution will be determined by whether the S&P 500 index value, as measured between January 1, 2026 and January 1, 2027, surpasses 8199.99, according to the resolution source. Traders should particularly watch the index’s performance as we approach the resolution date of January 1, 2027, as that marks the end of the observation window for this market.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the S&P 500 index value measured from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the index closes above its specified threshold at any point during this period. The measurement uses the official S&P 500 closing price, with thresholds ranging from 7,200 to 9,000 in 200-point increments. If the index reaches or exceeds a threshold level, that outcome and all lower thresholds resolve affirmatively. Data is sourced from standard financial market indices, and resolution is based on the highest value achieved during the measurement window.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market participants are indicating a different outlook than many traditional financial analysts. While many analysts predict moderate growth for the S&P 500, this market reflects a wider range of possibilities, with traders assigning significant probability to both higher and lower outcomes. This divergence suggests that the 'wisdom of the crowd' on Kalshi perceives factors not fully captured in standard financial models. It's important to note that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, whereas this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the S&P 500 will reach a certain level by Jan 1, 2027. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of market sentiment and expectations regarding the S&P 500's future performance. The current volume traded is $2,254,807.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the highest value reached by the S&P 500 during the year is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from established financial sources, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders will be able to see the final settlement price and whether their predictions were correct shortly after the resolution date. The total volume traded in this market is currently $2,254,807.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports, GDP growth figures, and employment numbers, are likely to influence trader sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events, shifts in Federal Reserve policy, and significant corporate earnings reports could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, any news impacting investor confidence or risk appetite could drive activity in this market. Changes in global economic conditions, particularly in major economies like China and Europe, will also be closely watched by traders.