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How high will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
kalshi

How high will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?

Volume:
$55,651

5.17% or above

 - Kalshi

5.17% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Oct 2, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.17% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,737
N/A
N/A
$4,737
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.16% or above

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,538
N/A
N/A
$2,880
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.19% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,732
N/A
N/A
$2,193
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.18% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,040
N/A
N/A
$1,040
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.4% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,873
N/A
N/A
$520
Settled
No
kalshi

5.2% or above

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,334
N/A
N/A
$1,462
Settled
No
kalshi

5.36% or above

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,892
N/A
N/A
$276
Settled
No
kalshi

5.44% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,057
N/A
N/A
$815
Settled
No
kalshi

5.45% or above

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,823
N/A
N/A
$1,436
Settled
No
kalshi

5.22% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,773
N/A
N/A
$229
Settled
No
kalshi

5.21% or above

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,464
N/A
N/A
$1,099
Settled
No
kalshi

5.39% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,456
N/A
N/A
$250
Settled
No
kalshi

5.23% or above

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,422
N/A
N/A
$619
Settled
No
kalshi

5.27% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,185
N/A
N/A
$570
Settled
No
kalshi

5.42% or above

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,069
N/A
N/A
$503
Settled
No
kalshi

5.43% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,039
N/A
N/A
$488
Settled
No
kalshi

5.24% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$878
N/A
N/A
$705
Settled
No
kalshi

5.37% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$722
N/A
N/A
$414
Settled
No
kalshi

5.29% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$672
N/A
N/A
$484
Settled
No
kalshi

5.35% or above

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$612
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
No
kalshi

5.26% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$603
N/A
N/A
$485
Settled
No
kalshi

5.31% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$603
N/A
N/A
$307
Settled
No
kalshi

5.32% or above

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$486
N/A
N/A
$263
Settled
No
kalshi

5.3% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$461
N/A
N/A
$316
Settled
No
kalshi

5.33% or above

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$457
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the yield of 7-year U.S. Treasury securities during October 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific yield threshold, and resolution depends on whether the official daily published yield exceeds that threshold on any business day within the specified period.

Kalshi

All markets cover the period from October 1, 2026, to October 30, 2026, and resolve based on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 7-year generic constant-maturity tenor published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging incrementally from 5.15% to 5.44%. If the published yield exceeds the specified threshold on any business day within the period, the market resolves to 'Yes.' Otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' Markets may expire early if the threshold is met, otherwise they expire at 10:00 AM ET on the day following the final day of the period. If an expiration value cannot be determined, the contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 7-year Treasury yield market tracks the current price of contracts representing predictions about the highest yield this Treasury will reach by October 2026. You’ll find a price chart displaying the historical trading activity, along with the current 24-hour volume of $929. The total volume traded to date is $55,651. This allows traders to see how sentiment around future interest rates is evolving and gauge the market’s confidence in various yield levels.

Currently, the collective prediction embedded in this market’s price offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide point estimates or ranges for future Treasury yields, this market represents a probability-weighted view of all possible outcomes. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on economic models and assumptions, whereas this market reflects the aggregated judgment of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies and risk appetites.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (the price they are willing to buy a ‘yes’ contract at) and asks (the price they are willing to sell a ‘yes’ contract at). When a bid and ask match, a trade occurs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s belief about the probability of the 7-year Treasury yield reaching or exceeding that level by the resolution date. Higher prices indicate a greater perceived probability, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the highest 7-year US Treasury yield reached during the month of October 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on data from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the final yield. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual outcome.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, would be a major driver. Inflation data releases, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), will influence expectations about future interest rates. Unexpected economic growth or recessionary signals, as well as geopolitical events, could also cause shifts in market sentiment and lead to price fluctuations in this market.